Is Trevor Siemian a clutch quarterback?
If you read my last post about Trevor Siemian's rankings, you might have seen that he led the team on three 4th quarter comebacks (4th quarter scoring drives to tie or take the lead in wins or ties) and two game winning drives (scoring drives in 4th quarter or overtime that put the team ahead for good). Both of those are pretty good. Matthew Stafford led the league in both with 8. Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick did not have a single one of either. So that is one measure of how "clutch" a QB is.
So I have some good news and some bad news. I'll give you the bad news first.
Performance in the last two minutes of the game or half.
Another measure is how clutch they are is how well they perform in last two minutes of half (or the game). Siemian was one of the worst QBs in the league in the last two minutes of the half or the game.
| QB | Situation | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | AVG | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
| Carr | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 45 | 67 | 500 | 67.2 | 7.46 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 124.0 |
| Brady | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 29 | 41 | 285 | 70.7 | 6.95 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 114.4 |
| Roethlisberger | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 61 | 87 | 587 | 70.1 | 6.75 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 110.7 |
| Kaepernick | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 27 | 41 | 252 | 65.9 | 6.15 | 65 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 107.0 |
| Mariota | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 64 | 103 | 735 | 62.1 | 7.14 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 105.4 |
| Bradford | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 52 | 70 | 410 | 74.3 | 5.86 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 105.1 |
| Stafford | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 60 | 96 | 787 | 62.5 | 8.20 | 73 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 99.6 |
| Smith | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 52 | 74 | 446 | 70.3 | 6.03 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 99.3 |
| Luck | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 52 | 81 | 587 | 64.2 | 7.25 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 99.2 |
| Prescott | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 40 | 69 | 481 | 58.0 | 6.97 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 97.6 |
| Brees | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 72 | 105 | 839 | 68.6 | 7.99 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 94.1 |
| Wilson | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 54 | 84 | 723 | 64.3 | 8.61 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 92.5 |
| Palmer | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 64 | 111 | 822 | 57.7 | 7.41 | 51 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 91.5 |
| Dalton | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 62 | 97 | 672 | 63.9 | 6.93 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 86.8 |
| Taylor | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 38 | 66 | 417 | 57.6 | 6.32 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 85.2 |
| Manning | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 46 | 76 | 500 | 60.5 | 6.58 | 66 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 84.3 |
| Ryan | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 41 | 67 | 379 | 61.2 | 5.66 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 77.9 |
| Rodgers | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 33 | 66 | 494 | 50.0 | 7.49 | 60 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 77.5 |
| Bortles | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 56 | 95 | 595 | 58.9 | 6.26 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 77.3 |
| Lynch | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 10 | 17 | 107 | 58.8 | 6.29 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 77.3 |
| Flacco | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 77 | 128 | 665 | 60.2 | 5.20 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 75.8 |
| Newton | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 34 | 68 | 430 | 50.0 | 6.32 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 71.3 |
| Tannehill | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 29 | 46 | 300 | 63.0 | 6.52 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 70.9 |
| Siemian | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 41 | 77 | 406 | 53.2 | 5.27 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 66.3 |
| Cousins | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 57 | 97 | 525 | 58.8 | 5.41 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 64.2 |
| Wentz | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 58 | 116 | 582 | 50.0 | 5.02 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 63.2 |
| Winston | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 38 | 73 | 403 | 52.1 | 5.52 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 60.5 |
| Osweiler | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 29 | 64 | 289 | 45.3 | 4.52 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 49.5 |
| Keenum | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 24 | 45 | 215 | 53.3 | 4.78 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 46.1 |
| Rivers | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 34 | 74 | 387 | 45.9 | 5.23 | 46 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 37.4 |
| Fitzpatrick | LAST 2 MIN. HALF | 21 | 48 | 211 | 43.8 | 4.40 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 31.2 |
Note that he was not the worst. That dubious distinction goes to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Siemian actually performed better in the last two minutes than Brock Osweiler, Carson Wentz and Phillip Rivers. So there is that.
So now for the good news.
Performance in the 4th quarter of close games (up or down by 7 or less)
Here is where Trevor Siemian was one of the best QBs in the league.
| QB | Situation | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | AVG | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
| Roethlisberger | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 32 | 37 | 430 | 86.5 | 11.62 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 154.7 |
| Brady | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 23 | 32 | 369 | 71.9 | 11.53 | 79 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 141.3 |
| Siemian | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 35 | 51 | 594 | 68.6 | 11.65 | 76 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 140.5 |
| Carr | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 47 | 80 | 776 | 58.8 | 9.70 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 119.6 |
| Wilson | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 60 | 89 | 721 | 67.4 | 8.10 | 53 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 107.0 |
| Rodgers | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 32 | 54 | 418 | 59.3 | 7.74 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 106.9 |
| Brees | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 66 | 93 | 729 | 71.0 | 7.84 | 49 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 102.0 |
| Luck | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 55 | 87 | 707 | 63.2 | 8.13 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 102.0 |
| Osweiler | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 34 | 49 | 332 | 69.4 | 6.78 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 101.7 |
| Palmer | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 50 | 74 | 570 | 67.6 | 7.70 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 98.4 |
| Prescott | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 54 | 87 | 612 | 62.1 | 7.03 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 94.6 |
| Cousins | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 60 | 97 | 829 | 61.9 | 8.55 | 70 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 94.4 |
| Ryan | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 30 | 54 | 445 | 55.6 | 8.24 | 76 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 92.0 |
| Newton | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 34 | 57 | 470 | 59.6 | 8.25 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 90.5 |
| Kaepernick | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 18 | 28 | 153 | 64.3 | 5.46 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 90.3 |
| Stafford | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 63 | 97 | 760 | 64.9 | 7.84 | 66 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 89.7 |
| Tannehill | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 25 | 50 | 390 | 50.0 | 7.80 | 66 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 87.9 |
| Winston | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 41 | 68 | 434 | 60.3 | 6.38 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 86.3 |
| Bradford | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 55 | 73 | 438 | 75.3 | 6.00 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 83.0 |
| Mariota | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 44 | 76 | 440 | 57.9 | 5.79 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 82.1 |
| Smith | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 21 | 28 | 198 | 75.0 | 7.07 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 79.2 |
| Fitzpatrick | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 21 | 34 | 338 | 61.8 | 9.94 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 77.8 |
| Manning | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 70 | 112 | 845 | 62.5 | 7.55 | 66 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 74.4 |
| Taylor | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 20 | 45 | 248 | 44.4 | 5.51 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 65.8 |
| Wentz | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 41 | 80 | 399 | 51.3 | 4.99 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 60.4 |
| Keenum | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 34 | 63 | 357 | 54.0 | 5.67 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 60.1 |
| Bortles | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 44 | 85 | 443 | 51.8 | 5.21 | 51 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 59.1 |
| Dalton | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 37 | 71 | 449 | 52.1 | 6.32 | 86 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 58.9 |
| Flacco | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 56 | 98 | 491 | 57.1 | 5.01 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 57.8 |
| Rivers | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 51 | 88 | 649 | 58.0 | 7.38 | 51 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 55.5 |
| Lynch | 4TH QTR, +/-7 PTS | 1 | 5 | 10 | 20.0 | 2.00 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 39.6 |
When you are close to Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger and better than Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, that's something to brag about. I wouldn't read too much into Paxton Lynch's 5 passes in the 4th Q of close games. I chuckled when I saw Phillip Rivers effectively at the bottom of this ranking.
Conclusion
During his first year starting at QB in the NFL, with a limited offensive line, no running game and head-scratching play-calling, Trevor Siemian performed well in the 4th quarter of close games but then faltered in the last two minutes of the game. I'll note that of his 5, 4th quarter passing TDs (he did not run for any), one came against NOR, two came against KC in DEN and two came against CIN. So his numbers on the whole look good for "4Q and close" situations (we had many close games this year like last year), but that only translated into 4th quarter TDs in three games.
Ben Roethlisberger was the "most clutch" QB in the league in 2016 (at least in the regular season); his completion % in 4th and close situations in 2016 was unreal. Interestingly enough in 2015, Ben was NOT very good in these situations. His QB rating was 82.5 because of his 6/5 TD/INT in these situations.
Source: www.bing.com